Gold to remain under correction
MCX GOLD REMAIN NEXT LOW SEE SOON @26800 and 23360www.rajatheetradergroup.blogspot.com
Gold International Comex
The huge rally from 2001 low of 255$ to 1923 (2011) appears to extend the correction.
In the monthly chart below, support of 1525$ was violated.
Further support is at 1478$. The low registered till 12/04/2013 was 1476 and closed at 1501.
Point A- fall from 1923 to 1523.
Point B- rise from 1523 to 1798.
Point C- is in progress and may end at the projection level of 1400 and 1155.
The low channel line is around 1400.
The retracement of the entire rally from 253 (1999) to 1923 (2011) are placed at 1288 and 1084. These are 23.6% and 38.2% retracement levels.
The 20 month variable average is at 1305 which is very close to the retracement level of 1288.
A rising channel appears to have been violated as shown in the chart shows that correction is likely to be seen in near term to short term with volatility unless vertical rise
and close above 1617$ is witnessed.
Objective broadly remains to exit long for near term to short term traders and investors as lower range may be tested in due course of time.
GOLD MCX CONTINIOUS 1 Month Monthly Chart
In the below mcx continuous monthly chart, the focus area of the rally is from 2007.
The data is from 2004 whereas the international rally started from 2001.
The blue color is the 10 month average.
The red color line is the 20 months variable average.
The blue color 10 months average was violated in Jan’13.The slope of the same was up since Sept’07. Oscillated in 2008 and crossed second time in Dec’208. Since then the 10 months average was not violated.
In Jan’13, the 10 months average was violated and now the slope of the 10 months average also has turned down.
No meaning full support on monthly chart is visible.
Therefore, we look at the retracement of the rise from 8542 (july’2007) to 32464 (Nov’12).
The 23.6% and 38.2% retracement are placed at 26800 and 23360.
Support may be seen at 26800-26500.
The 20 months variable average is at 24869 currently and the lower channel line is also around the same. Both these average and lower channel line will rise in due course of time on monthly chart.
Conclusion
Deeper correction is underway and in due course of time 26800-26500 may be tested.
Reversal indication on monthly chart may happen on rise and close above 30221 and till then overall objective would be to exit long and first deeper correction to 23.6% at
least may be tested before making any reversal indication.
In Comex, violation of supports show that 1400$ on conservative basis could be seen with objective to move towards 1305-1288$.
