RAJATHEE SURESHOT CALLS

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Sunday, August 10, 2014

Buy Voltas; target of Rs 230: OPERATOR CALLS

Buy Voltas; target of Rs 230: OPERATOR CALLS

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 OPERATOR CALLS 

The Projects business continued to report EBIT losses for the third consecutive year, as the pace of execution failed to pick up. However, curtailment of EBIT losses at 1.5% of project revenues against 3.3% in FY12 could be a key positive in a constrained environment.

RIEL reported EBITDA breakeven but continued to struggle with post tax losses, compelling VOLT to infuse capital in FY14.

VOLT’s net working capital (NWC) remained elevated on consolidated basis at 53 days against 30 days in FY11.

However, its NWC cycle reported sharp improvement on standalone basis (NWC days down by 10 days on standalone basis), supported by lower inventories (improvement of 4 days) and increase in trade payables (higher by 4 days). For FY14, the Room AC division reported 7% volume growth. Overall, the Unitary Cooling division reported 39% revenue growth.

EBIT margins across the division expanded from 9% in FY13 to 12.5%, supported by favorable product mix and higher demand from tier III & IV cities, which VOLT caters to through a pan India network of ~6,500 retailers. The Unitary Cooling division reported the highest margins in FY14 at 12.5% from a low of 5.9% in FY09.

VOLT’s manpower cost for FY14 declined 6% on a consolidated basis and 15% on a standalone basis. Employees on its payroll continued to decrease for the third consecutive year in FY14, with 65% of its manpower being on contract basis. VOLT has been rationalizing manpower to realign itself with current industry requirements.

"VOLT trades at 19.3x FY16E of INR10.4 and 15.7x FY17E EPS of INR12.8, and at an EV of 15.5x FY16E EBITDA and 12.2x FY17E EBITDA. Near-term growth triggers are dormant, considering the tepid pace of project execution across sectors. Profitability of the Projects division is also likely to be under pressure, as VOLT is yet to complete legacy projects.


 The Unitary Cooling division could be a major beneficiary of operating leverage once demand picks up across room ACs and refrigeration boxes. We model 14% revenue CAGR and 26% PAT CAGR over FY15-17. We maintain Buy; our target price is INR 230", says analysis research report. TeamRajathee